by Katherine Sheets, Executive Editor
Tuesday, Nov. 6 represented a turning point for American politics. Whether or not you follow election nights as intensely as a March Madness basketball game, Americans should take them just as (though preferably more) seriously. The midterms usually refer to general elections held every four years and include races for positions in Congress along with governorships and other state legislature and local public offices. The outcomes of the midterms significantly impact the next two years of American policy.
“Wave of blue”
News outlets like the New York Times, CNN and the Washington Post are reporting on the blue wave sweeping the nation, referring to the shift in votes from 2016’s election. The New York Times’s analysis of votes indicated that 313 congressional districts’ outcomes leaned left, but only 29 actually flipped from Republican to Democrat. The Democrats now have majority control over the House of Representatives, leaving Republicans with the presidency and Senate. The last time the House flipped was 2006.
Women in Congress
According to the Washington Post, “The new Democratic majority will be more female and more racially diverse, with several history-making members, including two Muslim women and two Native American women.”
However, Dr. Steve Clements, associate professor of political science and chair of the social science and history department at Asbury University, indicated that it will be hard to predict what kind of impact this change will make in the House since so many of the women running as Democrats did not present uniform positions.
“Some ran on fairly left-leaning platforms, while others (for example, Amy McGrath) ran closer to the center,” he said.
Kentucky’s sixth district drama
Perhaps the race causing the biggest stir locally was between Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Amy McGrath for the 6th Congressional District. According to Clements, this race was “an anomaly … primarily because of the nature of the 6th District.” He explained that Louisville’s urban district typically votes Democratic, while the rural districts usually vote Republican. Though the 6th District leans Republican, the large Lexington and university population area in the center of the district indicated a possible Democratic victory.
“Andy Barr was not especially vulnerable, but Amy McGrath offered a very compelling alternative,” he said. “I think she was hurt by not having been ‘back home’ in Kentucky for very long and by having raised a lot of funds outside the state. At the same time, Barr’s campaign and the Republican super-[Political Action Committee] in Washington, D.C. trying to hold onto the House both ran some despicable ads about McGrath.”
Barr won 51 percent of the vote while McGrath had 47.8, according to the Associated Press.
Clements went on to say, “[McGrath] ran a credible race and built her name recognition, however, such that if she starts building toward a next campaign in 2020, she will likely have a better shot at winning. Very few candidates of either party win a House or Senate seat their first try, especially if they’ve had no political experience yet.”
Governor races matter
Although they don’t have as much explicit federal sway, governors’ races should not be discounted in the heat of Congressional conflicts. Governors “primarily matter because the party that controls the governor’s office can strengthen the party statewide,” said Clements.
“The Republican Party has done a better job than Democrats in many more rural states in winning not just the governorship but also at winning control of state House and Senate chambers,” said Clements. “This is one of the reasons that the Republicans can remain so dominant outside of urban areas, even with a president who only has a 45 percent approval rating.”
But according to the Washington Post, the Democrats picked up at least seven governorships and performed well in several states Trump won in 2016. In Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D) bested Gov. Scott Walker (R), and Kansas elected Laura Kelly (D) as governor over Trump ally Kris Kobach. Residents of Kentucky will have the chance to vote for governor next November.
Getting to 2020
Midterms determine which party controls Congress, which in turn impacts how presidents finish their term. In 2016, the Republican Party had control of the House, Senate and presidency.
“Low turnout in such elections often favors the Republican Party because the GOP constituency of older and more religious voters will turn out,” said Clements.
However, “Trump had relatively few major legislative accomplishments in his first two years,” Clements said. “If Trump wants to accomplish anything of substance before he runs for reelection, he will have to negotiate and compromise with the Democrats in the House.”
According to the Washington Post, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned democrats against engaging in “presidential harassment” through aggressive oversight. Congressional oversight refers to the monitoring of the executive branch by Congress “overseeing” policy implementation and holding the president in check.
“The Democrats in the House will have to decide just how much presidential harassment is good strategy,” McConnell told reporters. “I’m not sure it will work for them.”
“The bottom line is that these next two years will be very different in terms of governance than what we had in the first two years of Trump’s presidency,” said Clements.
