Sharp Football Analysis

NFL week seven recap

Seven weeks in, the 2023 NFL season has been one of many unexpected twists and turns. Whether it’s the shock of the Bengals and Rams looking like they might not make the playoffs after last year’s Super Bowl appearances, the agony of superstar players like Nick Chubb and Aaron Rodgers getting injured and sidelined for the season, or the dramatic rise of young talent like Tua Tagovailoa, it’s probably safe to assume that you’ve been surprised by a headline or two this season.

Almost halfway through the season, it’s time for us to look back on the first seven weeks to see what they might say about who will be gunning for the playoffs and who might be clinging to their hopes of a good first-round draft pick in 2024.

Let’s get started by diving into the AFC. In the East, Tua and Tyreek Hill have been fighting tooth-and-nail to keep the Dolphins in first above the Bills, who are one game behind them at this point. It would be safe to assume that whichever of these two don’t win the East will still make the playoffs in one of the three wildcard slots. The Jets were quickly derailed by the loss of their newly acquired leader, Aaron Rodgers. New England is in last at 2-5, to the jubilation of every non-Patriots fan who suffered through Brady and Gronk’s reign of terror.

The South has been pretty stagnant for the past decade, with a team or two from it going on a nice run every season but never consistently. This year, Trevor Lawrence has led the Jaguars to a 5-2 start, putting them out in first by a couple of games. The Colts and Texans are pretty much the definition of middle of the pack this year. Then there’s the Titans, who just can’t seem to get anything started.

After a rocky week one, the Chiefs have been as dominant as ever this season, with an impressive 6-1 record. However, that’s the only thing noteworthy about the West, with the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos ranging from completely mediocre to embarrassing to watch on a week-by-week basis.

The North is competitive, per usual, with the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns all tied with only two losses. Following the Raven’s dominant performance against the Lions, Eric Edholm of ESPN said, “It was the kind of statement victory that makes you think the Ravens have a good shot to make the Super Bowl as any AFC team right now.” Lamar Jackson, TJ Watt and Myles Garrett are at the top of their game, each making a case for themselves to be MVP candidates. I would imagine that whichever two of these teams don’t win the North will be strong contenders for the wild card spots. Then there’s Joe Burrow and the Bengals unexpected fall from grace into being one of the more average teams so far this season. However, coming off a two-game win streak, they look hungry for a comeback, so I wouldn’t count them out too quickly.

Moving to the NFC, the East looks stronger than it has in a while. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles look dangerous this season, starting off 6-1. Right behind them are the Cowboys, who arguably have the best defense in the league. The Commanders seem to be getting some pieces to click on offense, with an amazing receiving core. And then there’s the Giants, who crumble to pieces any time they play against a semi-decent team.

On the other hand, the South looks rough this year. The Falcons have a slight lead over the Buccaneers and the Saints, but none of them look ready to make it past the first round of the playoffs. If the Falcons can find a way to unleash Bijan Robinson, they’ll be in good shape. In last place at 0-6, the Panthers look like they might be the worst team in the league at the moment, unable to fill the Superman-sized gap that Cam Newton left.

The West has been fairly competitive, with Brock Purdy and the 49ers maintaining a slight lead over the Seahawks with a 5-2 record so far. The Rams have been just as underwhelming as their 2022 Super Bowl opponents, the Bengals, despite their electric lineup of receivers. “You blink, and the Rams are suddenly 3-4,” said Edholm. “It’s been a strange start to the season, alternately promising and frustrating.” Then, in dead last, Joshua Dobbs has been unable to spark anything in the Cardinals, with an abysmal 1-6 record to show for it.

Finally, there’s the North, which has been surprisingly uninteresting so far. The Lions started on a roll but suffered an embarrassing loss against the Ravens that has analysts and fans doubting the legitimacy of their 5-2 record. “No two ways about it: This one was ugly,” said Edholm, “to the point that Detroit’s credentials must be questioned.” Besides them, the Vikings, Packers and Bears have been going through the same cycle of giving their fans a glimmer of hope, then stomping it into dust. Justin Fields looked like he’d finally had a return to form, before injuring his hand in week six. In Green Bay, Jordan Love has gone back and forth from being the comeback kid and looking like he’s completely out of his depth. And then the Vikings are just the Vikings… They more or less do the same thing every season…

If I had to predict the playoff lineup right now, I’d take the Dolphins, Steelers, Jaguars, and Chiefs winning their divisions and the Bengals, Ravens, and Bills securing the wild card spots for the AFC. The toughest of these calls is definitely the AFC North, to nobody’s surprise. “If this team could figure out its first half offensive slumps, we might have something here,” said Edholm about the Steelers. “It doesn’t have to be this hard. Still, somehow, it works… The Steelers are riding the razor’s edge, but maybe you can do that when you have T.J. Watt.”

In the NFC, I’d choose the Eagles, Lions, Falcons, and 49ers, with the wild card spots going to the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Vikings. My Super Bowl prediction at this point has to be a rematch of the 2023 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles, given how consistently dominant they’ve been since.

Game one of the NFL playoffs will begin on Jan. 13, with the Super Bowl taking place on Feb. 11, 2024.

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