by Matthew Barnes, Staff Writer
College hoops fans, it’s that time of year again. The time where you leave an imprint on your couch from flipping between 32 games in a two-day stretch. The time where schools the size of Asbury—Lehigh and Mercer—knock off powerhouses like Duke. And the time where fans either experience great joy or tremendous pain. March is upon us, and the madness is coming.
If previous years have felt wide open, this tournament has the potential to exceed that. Normally in the past, one or two teams just feel a tier above everyone else. Last year, it was Villanova and North Carolina. In 2016, it was Kansas. However, this season, there isn’t an unprecedented favorite.
As of Feb. 15, teams in the top ten of the AP Top 25 teams have lost 62 games, which is the most ever through that date. Three teams in the top ten have five or more losses. In a regular season full of upsets, it is fair to predict an NCAA Tournament packed with them as well.
However, despite a vastly even field of teams, there are a few teams that stand out as championship contenders. The first is Virginia. At 24-2, the Cavaliers are a defensively exhausting team who have mastered a consistent system of grinding out wins and playing as a cohesive unit. They are remarkably coached by Tony Bennett and have dangerous shooters in Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome. Other elements that favor Virginia in the tourney are their ability to contest shots without fouling and their insanely low assist-to-turnover ratio.
My main concern with Virginia has nothing to do with their current team; it’s their past. Virginia is a system-ran team, which means that Bennett incorporates three-star recruits into a playing style that works every year, no matter who is on the roster. The Cavaliers are always this good in the regular season. However, they have a history of wearing out come March and normally get knocked off by the Elite Eight. The past can influence the present, so it is hard to judge how they will perform.
The next threat is Michigan State. This is a team that is also well coached by Tom Izzo and is loaded with athletes and playmakers. They lead the nation in assists per game at 20.3 and are also seventh in rebounding. With guys like Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. leading the way, the Spartans have Final Four potential.
The main wild card team that will be hard to predict for brackets is Duke. They are easily the most talented team in the nation and are also one of the best coached under Mike Krzyzewski. While that sounds like a blueprint to cutting down the nets, the Blue Devils are massively inconsistent. They can beat anybody, but can also lose to anybody, which was displayed Feb. 3 when St. John’s defeated Duke 81-77. However, depending on their bracket, I’m not going to bet against Marvin Bagley and Grayson Allen when it counts. Duke is a serious threat, no matter how confusing they are to follow.
Everybody else in the field is a complete toss-up. There are some dangerous sleepers. Overall, I think Arizona has a solid body of work and could make some noise. North Carolina always shows up, and even though they aren’t the team they were last year, they are still a great shooting team that rebounds well. And while I don’t love Purdue’s chances, they can be dangerous when they have momentum.
Then there are the non-Power 5 teams which are very hard to judge. Villanova is a very smooth basketball unit who is capable of putting up points. I like their chances for the Elite Eight, but I just don’t see them cutting down the nets this year. Cincinnati is a tough team whose physical play grinds out wins, but I doubt their ability to make enough shots going up against a great offensive team. And I haven’t seen enough of Xavier to really have an opinion, but their record of 24-4 speaks for itself.
To all bracket junkies: please don’t take my advice. I may watch college hoops religiously, but that never translates to great brackets. When March comes around, I am just as clueless as anyone else. But that is what makes this tournament so great. The unpredictable nature of the games makes it anyone’s to win. So make your guesses, pop your popcorn and enjoy the month, because once the madness starts, no analytics are figuring this one out.
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